Q-Day Lab Methodology

Overview

Q-Day Lab v2.0 uses a dual-engine architecture:

• Q-Day Lab: Simplified capability-based model for CISO-level strategic planning
• Headless Advanced Engine: Physics-informed hardware modeling for technical validation

Capability Model

Q-Day Lab uses six capability sliders mapped to quantum hardware progress:

1. Logical Qubits: Target logical qubits for the quantum stack (2-1024)
2. Error Correction Progress: Decoder and EC throughput improvements (0-100%)
3. Qubit Quality: Physical gate fidelities and coherence times (0-100%)
4. AI-Accelerated Discovery: Machine learning impact on research pace (0-100%)
5. Classical Preprocessing Boost: Hybrid classical optimization gains (0-100%)
6. Magic-State Factory Throughput: T-gate resource production rate (0-100%)

Calibration

The model is calibrated to produce a 1.1x neutral baseline with default settings:

• Logical Qubits: 16
• Error Correction: 15%
• Qubit Quality: 15%
• AI Discovery: 10%
• Classical Boost: 10%
• Magic Factory: 15%

Acceleration Factor

The acceleration factor ranges from 0.5x to 2.0x:

• < 1.0x: Q-Day delayed (improvements slow quantum progress)
• = 1.0x: Neutral (no net change)
• > 1.0x: Q-Day accelerated (breakthroughs speed up timeline)

Headless Advanced Engine

The advanced engine provides transparent capability mapping from hardware parameters:

• Physical gate fidelities (1-qubit, 2-qubit)
• Coherence times (T1, T2)
• Gate cycle times
• Compiler depth reduction
• Decoder performance
• Factory throughput

Real-World Modalities (2025)

Seven modality presets with validated baselines:

• Superconducting Transmon
• Trapped Ions
• Photonic Cluster State
• Neutral Atoms (Rydberg)
• Neutral Atoms (Optical Tweezers)
• Silicon Spin Qubits
• NV-Center Diamond
• Hybrid Systems

Uncertainty & Scenarios

Q-Day Lab includes uncertainty quantification:

• P10/P50/P90: 10th, 50th, 90th percentile estimates
• Default Uncertainty: ±20% band around central estimate
• Scenario Presets: Conservative, Neutral, Aggressive, Breakthrough

Weekly Baseline Sync

Q-Day Lab uses a weekly baseline synchronization system:

• Baseline Source: 4-engine AI consensus (OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini, xAI)
• Update Frequency: Weekly manual/automated sync via admin endpoint
• Cache Location: baseline_cache.json
• Admin Access: /api/qday/baseline/update?token=SECRET