Q-Day Lab Validation & Calibration

Model Validation

Q-Day Lab v2.0 validation approach:

• Expert Consensus: Baseline calibrated to 4-AI-engine average
• Historical Backtesting: Comparison with past quantum hardware milestones
• Uncertainty Bounds: P10/P50/P90 percentiles capture estimate uncertainty
• Modality-Specific Baselines: Real-world 2025 coherence and scalability data

Calibration Checkpoints

Neutral Baseline (1.1x Factor)

Default settings produce 1.1x acceleration:

Parameter	Value
Logical Qubits	16 LQ
Error Correction	15%
Qubit Quality	15%
AI Discovery	10%
Classical Boost	10%
Magic Factory	15%

Acceleration Factor Bounds

Range	Interpretation
0.5x - 0.9x	Q-Day significantly delayed
0.9x - 1.1x	Near-baseline scenario
1.1x - 1.5x	Moderate acceleration
1.5x - 2.0x	Rapid breakthrough scenario

Modality Validation

Each hardware modality has validated coherence and scalability baselines:

Modality	Coherence Bias	Scalability Bias
Superconducting	0.55	1.00
Trapped Ions	0.85	0.80
Photonic	0.95	0.60
Neutral Atoms (Rydberg)	0.70	0.75
Neutral Atoms (Tweezer)	0.75	0.70
Silicon Spin	0.60	0.50
NV-Center	0.50	0.40
Hybrid	0.65	0.85

Biases normalized 0.0-1.0 based on 2025 published research and commercial roadmaps

Uncertainty Quantification

Default uncertainty: ±20% around central P50 estimate

• P10: Optimistic scenario (10th percentile)
• P50: Central estimate (median)
• P90: Pessimistic scenario (90th percentile)

Example: If P50 = 6.0 years, then P10 ≈ 4.8 years, P90 ≈ 7.2 years

Limitations & Disclaimers

• Estimates assume current-trend extrapolation; breakthrough physics not modeled
• Modality biases based on 2025 data; rapid evolution possible
• Uncertainty bands capture known unknowns, not unknown unknowns
• Executive model simplified for strategic planning; not hardware-accurate
• Weekly baseline sync requires manual/automated updates for accuracy