Q-Day Lab

Capability-focused what-if analysis for RSA-2048 quantum break timelines

Admin: Baseline Sync

Q-Day Lab uses simplified capability modeling for strategic planning. Adjust the six capability sliders below to explore quantum threat timeline scenarios for breaking RSA-2048 encryption. Learn about the methodology →

Capability Inputs

Logical Qubits ℹ️ Target logical qubits for the quantum stack. Uses log₂ scaling with diminishing returns—doubling LQ has less impact than initial gains. Range: 2-1024 LQ. 16 LQ
Error Correction Progress ℹ️ Composite metric combining 2-qubit gate fidelity, decoder throughput gains, factory performance, and coherence times. Represents overall EC stack maturity. Range: 0-100%. 15%
Qubit Quality ℹ️ Combines 1-qubit and 2-qubit gate fidelities, coherence times (T1/T2), and gate cycle speed. Higher quality reduces error correction overhead. Range: 0-100%. 15%
AI-Accelerated Discovery ℹ️ Impact of machine learning on research velocity—materials discovery, circuit optimization, error mitigation. Bounded by physical validation limits. Range: 0-100%. 10%
Classical Preprocessing Boost ℹ️ Compiler, mapping, and HPC effects that reduce quantum circuit depth via classical optimization. Includes problem decomposition and hybrid algorithms. Range: 0-100%. 10%
Magic-State Factory Throughput ℹ️ Non-Clifford resource production rate (T-gates). Magic-state distillation is a critical bottleneck for fault-tolerant quantum computing. Range: 0-100%. 15%

Results

Baseline Q-Day (RSA-2048) ℹ️ Baseline estimate for breaking RSA-2048 from 4-AI-engine consensus. Synced weekly via admin endpoint. Represents conservative timeline with current trend extrapolation.
6.6 years
Time until quantum can break RSA-2048
Adjusted Q-Day
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With capability improvements
Shift vs Baseline ℹ️ Delta from baseline. Negative shift = Q-Day arrives sooner (worse). Positive shift = Q-Day delayed (better). Triggers "migrate now" alerts when shift < migration window.
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Impact of acceleration
Acceleration Factor
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Combined capability multiplier
Weekly Risk Trend (52 weeks)
Baseline (blue) vs Adjusted (green) threat progression

Predefined Scenarios

Quick-load capability configurations for common strategic planning scenarios.

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